Despite the fact that stores such as
Walmart,
Best Buy,
Target and
Amazon are the most popular destinations for
Thanksgiving and
BlackFriday, their average average discounts are often pale compared to less popular
retailers. Although it can be argued that popular stores have the best door
locks on objects that people really want, second-tier retailers, including
Macy's,
Sears and
JCPenney, should not be ignored.
To give you a better idea of which stores will have the
best prices, we reviewed the average data on discounts for Thanksgiving and
Black Friday from last year. While there is no guarantee, the average discount
for each store will be the same in 2017, years after that showed us that there
are usually not many changes from year to year.
All the average data on discounts in 2016 were received from
Wallet Hub.
If you have not read an article about our store's forecasts
for the past year, you might be surprised. Amazon and Walmart are at the bottom
of the list, and club stores, including Costco and Sam's Club, had two of the
lower average discounts from all surveyed stores. The average discount does not
reflect the whole story, since a clothing store can offer a higher percentage
than a store that mainly sells electronics, so it's important to review it in
each case. Here are the 15 most important retailers for 2017 and their
projected discounts.
- Amazon- Predicted Average Discount: 20-25%
- Apple Store – Predicted Average Discount: No Sale (0%)
- Best Buy – Predicted Average Discount: 30-35%
- Costco – Predicted Average Discount: 25-30%
- Dell – Predicted Average Discount: 35-40%
- JCPenney – Predicted Average Discount: 60-65%
- Kmart – Predicted Average Discount: 25-30%
- Kohl’s – Predicted Average Discount: 55-60%
- Macy’s – Predicted Average Discount: 60-65%
- Sam’s Club – Predicted Average Discount: 25-30%
- Sears – Predicted Average Discount: 40-45%
- Staples – Predicted Average Discount: 30-35%
- Target – Predicted Average Discount: 25-30%
- Toys R Us – Predicted Average Discount: 40-45%
- Walmart – Predicted Average Discount: 30-35%
The Apple Store:
At one time, the Apple Store actually offered deals on
Black
Friday and
Cyber Monday. A few years ago, they started offering gift cards only
when buyers purchased items at a full retail price. Two years ago,
the Apple
Store did not sell at all. Last year they returned the gift card offer for
certain items, but many of the new models were excluded.
Apple has not yet responded to our request for additional
information, but it is unlikely they have a real sale this year. They can
include gift cards with certain products again, but there are better deals that
will be available elsewhere for Apple products, in particular Amazon, MacMall,
Walmart, Best Buy and eBay. Expect that third-party retailers will charge the
following prices.
- iPhone X – $0 Down & $300 Store Gift Card w/Activation
of Installment Plan OR $949.05 (5% off) w/o Installment Plan
- iPhone 8 – $0 Down & $250 Store Gift Card w/Activation
of Payment Plan OR $671.04 (4% off) w/o Installment Plan
- iPhone 8 Plus – $0 Down & $250 Store Gift Card
w/Activation of Installment Plan OR $765.44 (4.2% off) w/o Installment Plan
- iPad Pro 12.9″ for $674
- iPad Pro 10.5″ for $524
- iPad (2017) for $229
- iPad Mini 4 128 GB for $249
- Series 3 Apple Watch for $329 w/Gift Card or Store Credit
(no direct discount)
- 13″ MacBook Air for $799
- 12″ MacBook for $1,099
- 13″ MacBook Pro for $1,099
HHGregg:
Always a popular electronics retailer on Black Friday, this
year there is a lot of uncertainty around HHGregg. While they filed for
bankruptcy, their website is still working, and he even says that they are
counting on their great discovery. What this means is unknown, but it is likely
that HHGregg has a kind of sale on Black Friday. Last year their average
discount was 37.3 percent.
The most popular retailers are Black Friday:
These are the five stores that will be the most popular this
year, and their sales follow the same format every year.
Amazon:
As usual, expect that Amazon will postpone as long as
possible to publish information on sales on Black Friday. Our analysis says
that on November 17, he will release his annual press release for recreation, and
he will present a sample of 20 to 25 of his items of sale, most of which will
be Amazon products, including Tap, Kindle and Fire. Their press release Cyber
Monday should be released on November 25, which will not give much time for
preparation. The minimum size of a free shipping $ 25 is fairly easy to meet,
but do not expect Amazon to give it up.
Despite our projected average discount of only 20-25%,
Amazon will have some of the most popular individual items. The new Fire 7 will
be available for about $ 29.99, and Fire HD 8 should be only $ 49.99. Expect
Amazon Echo to be available for just $ 69.99. They will probably offer 32-inch
HDTV for only $ 70, and they will have many gaming complexes on average $ 50.
Best Buy:
Despite its struggle,
Best Buy always has one of the best
and most complete sales on
Black Friday. They specialize in TVs, and last year
they had a deal number 1 according to our analysis - a 49-inch 4-inch Toshiba
TV for only
$ 199.99. In 2017, expect more from the same, with the best TV doorfight.
We assume that they will have a 55-inch 4-channel premium TV for only
$ 275.
Do not let their average forecast of discounts by 30-35
percent scare you off. This year, Best Buy will have a lot of top door locks. As
well, they are likely to offer free shipping without the minimum order size through
the holiday season. Expect their announcement on November 9, sometime early in
the morning. Unlike some other retailers, Best Buy is likely to have only a few
stores in the store, so it's important to read the small print for each
transaction. Probably, they will open at 5 pm. Thanksgiving this year.
Kohl’s:
Despite the fact that
Kohl annually sells one of the
best-selling products during
Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and
Cyber-Monday.
Expect that their announcement will be released on November 2, 2017. Of the
five best stores, Kohl should have the highest average discount, and we think
that it will fall in
55-60% of the range. Probably, they will open at 6 pm.
Thanksgiving this year.
In addition to more electronics than ever, Kohl's also offered
more online deals last year than ever before. Expect this trend to continue in
2017. In addition, you will find a lot of doors, laid with the help of cash
Kolya. In certain situations, you will be able to receive more than $ 100 in
cash Kohl, which, like a gift card, when you purchase the chosen item. This is
powerful because Kolya's will many times has the same price for items that are
in other stores, but the addition of Kohl's cash gives him an advantage for the
best overall net discount. Do not expect that Kohl will give up his free
shipping.
Target:
In recent years
Target has made its way to one of the elite
stores
Black Friday. They combine many of their top electronics with
Target
gift cards, which makes the total net discount higher than the competitors of
Walmart and
Best Buy. Targeted members of REDcard receive 5 percent of each
purchase, which is another way to save even more on
Black Friday prices, which
are already very low.
Expect the Target announcement to take place on November 8,
and this will happen a few hours before Walmart and Best Buy collect their own
ads. The average discount this year should be 25-30 percent. As usual, expect
Target to offer free shipping without the minimum order size for the holiday
season. Probably, they will open at 6 pm. Thanksgiving this year.
Walmart:
Nevertheless, the most popular retailer is Black Friday, the
leakage of Walmart advertising is an event in itself. Regardless of the
mystery, Walmart is pretty predictable when they are going to publish it.
Usually it happens the second week of November, and it happens in the middle of
the night. Expect it on November 9 this year.
The average discount of Walmart last year was 32.6 percent,
which is on the lower level. Expect that this year it will be somewhere from 30
to 35 percent, which will still be much lower than in some competing stores.
Unlike Best Buy and Target, do not expect Walmart to give up its free minimum
shipping volume. The good news is that you will be able to use a free two-day
delivery to order from 35 US dollars or more. Expect Walmart to include gift
cards worth up to $ 50 with certain door locks. Probably, they will open at 6
pm. Thanksgiving this year, but it does not shock us to open at 5 pm. instead.
General Store Predictions
Total total average Black Friday Discount: 36.5%
If you are making purchases for Thanksgiving or Black Friday
this year, you should be able to save at least 36.5 percent. Clever buyers will
be able to save even more, while others can actually save less. The best buyers
should be able to save 60 percent or more, if they are aimed at the best stores
and deals. We calculated this percentage, taking the average of the predicted
values of 20 stores in the diagram at the top of the page. The average
discount last year was slightly below our projected value, so we expect
responses for 2017.
Average free shipping Minimum order size: 35 US dollars
We've already talked about this, and we'll say it again - we
never pay for shipping on Black Friday. Too many stores either offer free
shipping for each order, or a low minimum order size to qualify for free
shipping. As always, Target and Best Buy are likely to offer free shipping for
each order during November. Although this is a general request that the Amazon
and Walmart correspond to them, there is very little chance that it will
happen. Amazon's $ 25 free will stay in place, but the prime members will
continue to enjoy a free two-day delivery. Walmart's offer for a free two-day
delivery for orders of $ 35 or more is also likely to remain in place.
The store on which to watch closely is JCPenney. In previous
years, their minimum level of free shipping was about $ 100, which is too much.
However, last year they fell to $ 50. Koh's had free shipping in the amount of
$ 50 to $ 75, but we suspect that this year it will be lower.
Important dates for ad leaks
- The first common leak: cargo transport in the port on
October 11
- The first advertising breakthrough of the Top Store: Macy's
on October 27
Check out our blacklist slip forecasts for Black Friday 2017
for a complete list of important dates to look out for.
Official Black Friday, 2017 Kickoff Date: November 1
As always, Amazon will begin its reverse sale on November 1.
While there are some good suggestions, we recommend that you skip it. There are
the best pre-black Friday sales than Amazon's, in particular, the sale of club
club Sam's Club in mid-November.
Official online release of Thanksgiving 2017 Kickoff Date:
Wednesday, November 22
Many sales on Black Friday will begin earlier this year, but
Wednesday, November 22, is an important date. Last year, Walmart and many other
key retailers began selling on Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and the real
deals are most likely to go live this day this year.
The earliest Thanksgiving Day Opening: Kmart at 6am.
As always, expect Kmart to open on Thanksgiving Day at 6 am
and spend most of the day. Why Kmart knows all this, but there is a ton of
reaction to their solution. In any case, we do not expect that Kmart will
change its early hours this year.
2017 Winner Black Friday: Kohl's
We have long liked the sale of Kolya, and we think that 2017
is the year when they finally get the pleasure they deserve. In addition to
having the same or better prices as Walmart and Target on premium electronics,
they include Kohl's cash, which is basically free money for frequent buyers. If
you can only shop at one store this year, Kohl is a great option.
Black Friday predictions Conclusion
Despite the fact that a year later, the forecasts of our
stores look frighteningly similar to last year's version. This is because
stores often repeat their sales format. Some even repeat the same transactions
and prices, which means that the average discounts will not change too much.
We recommend that you take an average discount of at least
50 percent. Avoid stores that do not refuse shipping fees, and be prepared to
start online shopping the day before Thanksgiving.
